Evaluation, Proposed Solution and Current Status of the Crater Lake Breakout Problem, Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

Abstract

Rapid rise of Mount Pinatubo's crater lake and recent geological assessments of the crater's lowest point, the Maraunot Notch, raised concern about a breakout lahar down the northwestern slope of the volcano. Three factors indicated a serious hazard. First, the lake rose about 50 m from May 98-August 2001 and was expected to overtop the Maraunot Notch within the last trimester 2001. Overtopping might well have occurred at the height of a strong typhoon or under heavy monsoonal rainstorms. Second, the uppermost 10-20 m of 'dam' was erodible ash and poorly indurated coarse breccia, susceptible to failure by overtopping and erosion as at many landslide and other natural dams. Third, the volumes of lake discharge corresponding to 10 and 20 m of erosion would have been 28 and 55 million m3; peak discharges at a breach could have been as high as 3,200 m3/sec to 11,000 m3/sec, respectively. These discharges would have eroded 1991 pyroclastic and lahar material on the volcano's slopes, increased the flow volume by 3-6x, and entered the Bucao River as a large-magnitude lahar. The Municipality of Botolan (pop. ca. 40,000) lies on the delta of the Bucao River valley some 40 km downriver from the notch, and could have been at great risk. Given this potential risk, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in early August 2001 advocated three actions. (1) An intentional breaching of the Maraunot Notch by the construction of a spillway or canal, by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). Early breaching would limit further rise of the lake and thus reduce the magnitude of potential flood. Also, breaching would be scheduled during good weather to eliminate the danger of overtopping at an unknown time and/or under typhoon/rainstorm conditions. (2) An information campaign in Botolan in order to educate and prepare residents for breaching. (3) Evacuation of people at risk, one day before the scheduled breaching. A spillway was excavated by as many as 70 men with picks and shovels, and the specter of a wholly uncontrolled breach through the most erodible debris was averted. Early flow through the spillway was gentle and evacuees quickly returned home. However, 10-15 m of poorly indurated breccia still remains, lake level is still rising slowly, and we are watching to see whether outflow after heavy rains will armor the spillway or catastrophically erode the remaining dam. Insufficient communication between scientists and engineers led DPWH to design for less scouring than expected by PHIVOLCS, and politics and liability concerns at several levels halted digging before the trench could be deepened and outflow increased. Perhaps this is just as well. An inherent conflict arose between short- and long-term risk mitigation. Short-term risk was minimized; long-term risk was reduced but remains a concern. Complete breaching of the dam and thus elimination of long-term risk would have sharply increased short-term risk to Botolan. *Quick Response Team Members: Mabel Abigania, Rene Arante, Onie Arboleda, Maricar Arpa, Mariton Bornas, Edwin dela Cruz, Jojo Cordon, Toti Corpuz, Art Daag, Elmer Gabinete, Del Garcia, Lito Gelido, Lito de Guzman, Sheila Insauriga, Dindo Javier, Rudy Lacson, Bong Luis, Rey Lumbang, Danny Martinez, Mylene Martinez-Villegas, Chris Newhall, Jed Paladio-Melosantos, Mel Pagtalunan, Myla Panol, Jack Puertollano, Raymundo Punongbayan, Gina Quiambao, Andoy Ramos, July Sabit, Noli Sexon, Jimmy Sincioco, Opet Villacorte.

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• 1815 Erosion and sedimentation;
• 1821 Floods;
• 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
• 8499 General or miscellaneous